The End of War Remains Distant

Armed conflicts worldwide have shown an upward trend over the past decade. Recent data highlight that both interstate wars and internal armed struggles continue to hit record highs. While international forums speak of peace resolutions, the hard numbers show a direction that does not favor the end of wars.

Record Number of Conflicts

According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), in 2024 the number of armed conflicts reached 61 cases, the highest since modern record-keeping began in 1946. This figure surpassed the previous record of 59 in 2023. The increase reflects ongoing geopolitical tensions, resource competition, and ideological rivalries.

It is not just the numbers that have increased, but also the intensity. Conflict trend reports covering 1946–2024 show that fatalities from battles in 2024 remained as high as in 2023, making this period one of the deadliest since the late 1980s.

Declining Peace Index

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2025, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace, recorded a decline in global peacefulness of 0.36 percent. This marks the 13th deterioration in 17 years of monitoring. Even previously stable countries are experiencing worsening scores due to rising political risk, domestic violence, and more aggressive foreign policies.

In this context, the phrase “world peace” seems harder to achieve. Modern wars now include not only open military confrontation but also cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and competition for economic and technological dominance.

Military Spending on the Rise

Meanwhile, data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveal that global military expenditure in 2024 reached 2.718 trillion dollars, or 2.5 percent of total global GDP. This marks the tenth consecutive year of growth.

Massive investments in advanced weaponry, drones, military satellites, and artificial intelligence for defense show that major powers are not preparing for a world without war. On the contrary, long-term strategies appear focused on strengthening military dominance and preparing for future escalations.

The Science of Predicting Conflicts

Although no research can determine the exact date when all wars will end, some scientific models attempt to forecast risks. One such model is ViEWS, an early-warning system managed by Uppsala University together with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

ViEWS uses historical data, political factors, and social conditions to generate monthly forecasts up to three years ahead. However, the output is not a date for peace but rather probabilities of violence in specific regions. In other words, science can map risks but cannot answer the question of “when all wars will stop.”

Key Factors for Peace

International policy research stresses that the chances of peace depend more on political action than on scientific forecasts. Some critical factors include:

• State fragility. OECD’s States of Fragility framework assesses political, social, economic, security, and environmental vulnerabilities. The more fragile a state, the higher its risk of conflict.
• The UN’s New Agenda for Peace. This initiative emphasizes preventive diplomacy, arms control, and more inclusive global governance. However, it still requires practical implementation.
• Social and economic changes. Inequality, resource competition, and the effects of climate change remain drivers of conflict unless addressed fairly.

Indicators Worth Monitoring

Rather than searching for the date when war will end, experts recommend monitoring credible indicators. Four main ones include:

1. Active conflict numbers and annual fatalities from UCDP and PRIO.
2. Global Peace Index scores per country.
3. Global military spending reported by SIPRI.
4. State fragility scores from the OECD.

By following these indicators, governments and the public can better assess whether the world is moving toward escalation or toward gradual de-escalation.

The Reality of World Peace

The picture painted by 2024 and 2025 data is sobering: war is not ending anytime soon. Conflicts are rising, death tolls remain high, military spending is soaring, and global peace scores are declining.

However, this does not mean there is no hope. Multilateral initiatives, rising awareness of climate change, and pressure from global civil society can help reduce conflict step by step. Still, the path is long and full of challenges.

If the world is to truly achieve peace, the key does not lie in speculating about “when” all wars will stop but in the collective willingness to address root causes of conflict and build fair governance. From today’s data, it is clear that global peace is still distant, but the path remains open if there is real commitment.