The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released a new report highlighting the role of artificial intelligence in reshaping international trade. The organization projects that AI could push global trade values up by 34 to 37 percent and increase world gross domestic product by around 12 to 13 percent by 2040. These figures place AI as a leading driver of economic growth in the coming two decades.
The report emphasizes the efficiency AI brings to supply chains, customs operations, and cross-border digital services. WTO stresses that lower operational costs and faster trade processes will open broader market access. The most significant effect is expected in digital services, which could expand by about 42 percent, including AI-driven services themselves.
However, WTO also warns of risks if digital infrastructure remains uneven. Low-income countries risk being left behind due to limited technology, regulations, and access to resources. In the baseline scenario, advanced economies could enjoy real income gains of up to 14 percent, while low-income countries would see only about 8 percent. But if digital infrastructure improves, this gap could narrow significantly, offering nearly equal gains across nations.
Potential Impact on Global Trade
AI is expected to lower language barriers and accelerate market integration. Automated translation and conversational agents open new paths for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to enter international markets without excessive costs. WTO highlights that SMEs stand to benefit the most, gaining easier access to global customers.
AI also delivers a powerful productivity boost. Analyses show AI can raise efficiency in customer service, management consulting, and software development. WTO even projects AI’s contribution to global productivity growth could reach 0.68 percentage points per year under an optimistic scenario.
For labor markets, WTO states that real wages will broadly rise, but the skill premium may decline by 3 to 4 percent. This happens because many medium- and high-skill tasks can be automated by AI, while low-skill jobs are relatively less affected. Returns on capital are projected to climb 14 percentage points higher than wages, as AI is capital-intensive and drives strong demand for investment.
Risks and Challenges
The WTO highlights digital inequality as the biggest risk. Computing power, skilled labor, hardware, and regulatory readiness remain concentrated in a handful of nations. Without inclusive policies and broader investment, the benefits of AI will remain locked within advanced economies and large corporations.
The report also points to fragmented trade rules as another threat. Diverging policies such as tariffs, export controls, and data localization laws could slow down global AI adoption. Labor market disruptions add to the challenge, particularly for countries reliant on exporting high-value services like translation or transcription.
WTO urges member states to keep trade open and update rules relevant to the digital economy. Investments in digital infrastructure and clean energy are also critical to support expanding data centers. The organization calls for deeper international cooperation to harmonize standards and strengthen capacity in low-income countries.
Global Reactions and Perspectives
International media outlets such as Reuters and the Financial Times have underlined both the potential and the risks in WTO’s projections. Many economists argue AI could be the largest growth driver since the digital revolution, while stressing the need for inclusive policies so that benefits are not limited to wealthy nations.
The Rockefeller Foundation has launched a $50 million initiative to reinforce international cooperation in tackling global technological challenges, including AI adoption. Their survey shows strong public support for global cooperation, but also reveals fragile trust in multilateral systems.
Regionally, the European Union has begun discussing stricter trade regulations on advanced technologies. Meanwhile, developing nations continue to demand greater access to digital infrastructure and AI resources.
The closing perspective reinforces the main issue: AI is seen as both a massive opportunity for global trade and a serious challenge for economic equality worldwide. Readers interested in understanding more about digital economy policies are encouraged to explore related articles on Olam News covering AI strategies in global finance and logistics.
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